Measuring financing gaps in social protection for achieving SDG target 1.3. Global estimates and strategies for developing countries
The paper provides regional and global estimates of the costs and financing gaps of target 1.3 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) relating to social protection and analyses a number of options for filling those financing gaps in the developing countries using domestic and external resources. The paper considers four policy areas (excluding health) of the social protection floor (SPF): children, maternity, disability and old age. It estimates the coverage gaps for each area; the cost of providing universal coverage; the total financing gap for achieving universal coverage in 2019; and the annual incremental financing needs to progressively achieve universal coverage between 2019 and 2030. In addition to measuring the cost and financing gap of a social protection floor (i.e. with respect to non-contributory social protection systems), the paper attempts to estimate the financing gap of contributory systems – and therefore the potential fiscal space that could be created assuming a potential increase in social security coverage or contribution rates or both. Finally, it provides a list of fiscal space options, paying particular attention to options for raising revenues using taxation and official development assistance (ODA).